Arsenal enter the 2026/27 season as Premier League champions for the first time in 22 years, and the numbers behind that title defence stack up better than most one-season wonders. Mikel Arteta's side finished seven points clear of Manchester City last term, and the market currently makes them roughly 40% favourites to go back-to-back, a healthy gap over the chasing pack, even allowing for the fact that no side has retained the Premier League title since Manchester City's 2018-2019 double.
Squad value data from Transfermarket tells an interesting story here. Manchester City actually carry the most expensive squad in the division at an estimated €1.32bn, marginally ahead of Arsenal's €1.25bn. On paper, that would suggest City as favourites. But squad value only measures the players on the sheet, not the disruption of replacing the manager who built that squad. Pep Guardiola's departure after a five-trophy decade hands the reins to Enzo Maresca, and however well-regarded he is following his own title-winning spell in Italy and a solid first season at Chelsea, a managerial change of that scale is historically where points get dropped early. Arteta, by contrast, enters his seventh full season at Arsenal with a settled squad and staff who already know how to win with it, continuity that tends to matter more than a marginal edge in squad value.
Liverpool sit third in the betting at around 13%, but carry their own version of City's problem. After winning the title in 2024/25, a difficult defence cost Arne Slot his job, and Liverpool enter 2026/27 rebuilding under new management with a squad value (€940m) some way below the top three. Chelsea, despite the third-highest squad value at €1.12bn after heavy summer spending, are working from a low base following a 10th-place finish — a reminder that spending doesn't automatically translate into league position without time to gel. Manchester United carry the most meaningful momentum of the chasing pack, having secured Champions League qualification under Michael Carrick, though a squad value of €749m, smallest of the traditional "big five", still leaves them projecting as outsiders rather than genuine challengers.
Put together, the statistical case points toward Arsenal as the most likely champions again: a title-winning squad retained almost intact, the most experienced manager among the leading contenders in his current job, and a seven-point cushion built under real pressure last season. Manchester City remain the closest genuine threat, but the Guardiola-to-Maresca transition is the single biggest variable in the division this season, and variables like that are exactly where pre-season squad-value rankings tend to mislead.
As ever, this is a statistical read on early-season data rather than a guarantee, injuries, form swings and one bad month can undo the best-resourced squad in the country. But if you're building your own Pick10 picks around the sides most likely to be picking up results, Arsenal and Manchester City are where the data currently points.